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March 2008

March 30, 2008

Search stats for this blog

I recently installed a Lijit add-on to the blog, and have gotten some interesting stats. Thought I'd share them below. Not surprisingly, there's a ton of people searching about Facebook and viral marketing.

First, here are the searches that people do on the site:

 
  1. facebook 14 times
  2. registration funnel 7 times
  3. viral coefficient 7 times
  4. viral 7 times
  5. "meet new people" 5 times
  6. traction 5 times
  7. registration 4 times
  8. social gaming 3 times
  9. viral marketing 3 times
  10. dating site 2 times
  11. coefficient 2 times
  12. co-founder 2 times
  13. virtual goods 2 times
  14. yelp 2 times
  15. facebook viral 2 times

Second, these are the keywords for how people are searching for on Google and other search engines, in order to reach the site:

Web 2.0 Haikus

Sorry for the lack of posts recently, have been very busy in the last week.

I was at lunch with some friends and started typing out some viral marketing haikus on my phone - so secondly, sorry for the bad haikus that follow:

Viral marketing
Friends who spam you all the time
Aren't really your friends

Just raised some V C
Social websites make no cash
Google can't save you

Techcrunch Valleywag
Techmeme Mashable and more
Why work? Just read blogs

Fickle teenagers
Herded ruthlessly for cash
You got an invite

Lack of retention
Viral loops are not enough
You just jumped the shark

Please post your own in the comments ;-)

March 22, 2008

Reader question: What fuels you?

Q: What fuels you?
Posted by symptic

A: I think this YouTube video is appropriate:

What is best in life? (Conan the Barbarian)

20% discount from CommunityNext: Media and the Web for March 29th

I won't be attending due to schedule conflicts, but for those of you in the media world, the following might be interest:

Community Next is bringing Silicon Valley to the land of silicone for The Next Generation of Media and the Web on Saturday, March 29.  Hear from Josh Berman, co-founder MySpace/co-president Slingshot Labs; Robert Scoble;  Alexis Ohanian, founder Reddit; Aza Raskin, founder Songza and more (http://communitynext.com/schedule).  Get your questions answered and meet the experts!

Of course, FREE Redbull, food and drinks all day long.  Pre-party for conference attendees hosted by Twiistup and post-party hosted by Mashable/Mixergy.  Promises to be good times!
Because you're cool, get 20% off through Wednesday, March 26, 9am PT:
http://nextmedia.eventbrite.com/?discount=andrewrules

March 14, 2008

Bridging your traffic engine with your revenue engine

Viral loops are only good for one thing
... and that thing ain't revenue. Viral loops generate traffic, but you still need to:

  • Retain the traffic that's generated virally
  • As well as also monetize the traffic

Between these steps are transition points from acquisition to retention, and then from retention to monetization. You can think of these transition points as a series of bridges (or more accurately, funnels) that you analyze and optimize.

Why separate your viral loop and your retention loop?
Some of you might have noticed that oftentimes, viral loops are extremely simple user flows that build on users' need for:

  • reciprocation (gifting, accepting invites)
  • social norms (comparison/rating)
  • greed (free ipods)
  • etc.

For many of these loops, you can get a user to invite their next set of users, but after the process, it's easy to feel a sense of completeness and leave the site. There are many Facebook apps, for example, that are just "pure" viral loops - there's really no retention loop that the user enters after they're done.

And as I argued in a previous post called "When and why do Facebook apps jump the shark?" the lack of a retention loop can hugely damage the long term value that you're creating.

That said, the Shangri-La of viral marketing would be a product that not only was viral, but the viral loop was the same as a retention loop. Perhaps this is the easiest to do when you are building a communication app, because ultimately every time you use Hotmail, you are helping them advertise and acquire users.

But if you're lazy, you can use one of the "pre-built" viral loops that are out there (like gifting, invitations, etc.) and try to integrate that into yoru site. You then have a viral loop that you use to acquire users, and after they've helped you acquire some traffic, you then transition them into a user experience that retains them.

HotOrNot case study
I want to use HotOrNot as an example of bridging your traffic engine with your revenue engine, because I think they do it very well. Please go to HotOrNot.com to refresh your memory, if you haven't visited the site recently.

HoN is really split into two completely different experiences:

  1. The classic hot or not ratings experience
  2. Then, a dating site with virtual goods as the monetization

The first experience is the one that ultimately drives all the traffic. Without using any "productized" viral techniques, the site was viral because it was fun, and people sent it to their friends. This is their traffic engine, and for some companies, it might have been enough to slap some ads on the site and call it done.

However, the company went further than that - each picture on the site is actually an AD that bridges users into the dating site. At the top of each picture, you see "Click here to meet me," but also clicking ANYWHERE on the picture also takes you into a registration landing page. Some % of users then convert on this page, and then successfully transition into a general dating site.

Why it works
There are some key things that make HotOrNot work, and I'd encourage you to think about it in the context of your web property also:

  • HotOrNot has a novel user acquisition technique - user ratings that drive word-of-mouth viral
  • The bridging process is tailored to work with the traffic engine, and thus is also very novel
  • The traffic engine is bridged to the revenue engine via pictures that constitute 30%+ of the real estate on any given page
  • Once you click, the picture of the person you're interested in is used on the landing page to "smooth" the transition point and increase conversion rates

I think it's very important that both the traffic engine, the bridge, and the retention loop are all motivationally aligned." This means that if the user's there for hot chicks, then the entire process bridges them into a retention loop that's all about hot chicks. Or if it's about making money, it permeates the entire funnel as well. HotOrNot has a very smoothly designed transition, as as a result, I'm sure the conversion rates are quite high.

Measuring the efficiency of your bridge
One might ask, how do you measure the smoothness of the transition? Well, consider the following - would you rather have:

Scenario A:
Acquire 1,000,000 users which turn into 10,000 retained users

or:

Scenario B:
Acquire 100,000 users which turn into 25,000 retained users?

It's pretty obvious, of course, that acquiring LESS users but ending up with more retained users is better - thus I'd prefer scenario B. Because the carrying capacity on Facebook is roughly 60,000,000, then a more efficient bridge ultimately leads to more retained users, which generate much higher total visits, whcih in turn generate more revenue.

So let's define a new metric, which I'll call "Activation Efficiency," using the marketing parlance of how many contacts you can "activate" into leads and then into sales:

Activation Efficiency = total retained users / total acquired users

where:

  • Retained users means total # of users that had 2 visits or more, let's say
  • Acquired users means the total number of uniques that come in through your viral loop

Once you start measuring this, then it becomes much easier to think about connecting your viral loop and retention loops. After all, if you acquire 100 million users but only 0.1% activate, and you have a site of 100,000 active users, your ComScore numbers might look nice, but you're right about to jump the shark!

March 10, 2008

Too many social networking aggregators?

OK, this is pretty funny. Check it out ;-)

Reader question: What's the difference between "Viral Marketing" and "Word of Mouth?"

Q: Can you clarify the difference between word-of-mouth and viral marketing. This Seth Godin post doesn't quite capture it, or...http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2007/10/is-viral-market.html
Posted by seanellis

A: I tend to think of Viral Marketing that include both systematic and unsystematic ways that your current customers acquire new customers, including:

  • Chain letters
  • Tupperware parties
  • Youtube embedding
  • E-mail forwards
  • Consumer "buzz"
  • ... etc

In some of these cases, the virality has been "built-in" to the system - for example, but chain letters explicitly promise you something in return for sending on a letter, as do Multi-Level Marketing systems like Tupperware. These incentives and systematic design are originated with the intent to propagate a viral process.

On the other hand, when I think of Word of Mouth, however, I specifically think of consumers telling other consumers about a product just because they like it, rather than there being a direct incentive to do so. This feels more organic or natural to me, and perhaps, it's what people usually think of as your passionate influencers propelling your company forward.

Perhaps this distinction is arbitrary, but it helps serve the point that viral marketing can be defined very broadly - beyond word of mouth and other "natural" vectors.

Google's second click versus Facebook's second click

Google's second click
For those of you who haven't read Dave Morgan's article on Google trying to capture the "second click" you should do so here: MediaPost - The Fight for the Second Click. It's a couple months old, but worth the read if you haven't seen it.

The point is, because of Google's position as the de-facto start page of the internet, they are able to control where users go - and that control makes them powerful, because traffic = money. The fight for the "second click" refers to Google thinking about how they can control not just the first click (Search!) but also provide a shortcut to answer the query on a second click. And because of their control of the search engine result page (SERP), they can always place their content above everyone else's.

Examples of capturing the second click
Here are a couple examples of this - check them out:

It might seem like a big deal to do this, but you can imagine that if you ran a business in weather, real estate, dictionary reference, or movies, you'd want to know where Google was planning to expand here.

The reason is that in a lot of these vertical businesses, like movies, your only hope for getting users to come back to your site is via search engines. It's hard to have a daily relationship with your users, and thus you are dependent on the "start pages" to point you in the right direction.

So when you see Google starting to build into this area, it can cause trouble because it siphons away traffic.

Is the SERP Google's platform?
When it comes to platforms, maybe it makes sense to think of the search result page as Google's platform. After all, let's compare to Microsoft:

  • Windows is Microsoft's horizontal platform across applications
  • Applications build on top of Windows and have to adapt to its APIs
  • Microsoft can use Windows to cross-sell their vertical apps (think Office, IE, XBox, etc)
  • Back in the old school days, Microsoft could change their API or have "secret" APIs that would give their own applications an advantage over standalone companies

Let's compare this to Google:

  • The search results page is Google's horizontal starting point across websites
  • Websites build on top of the Google index and have to adapt to its algorithm changes - that industry is called Search Engine Optimization
  • Google can use their search results page to cross-sell their vertical apps (think Google Toolbar, the mini-results listed above, etc.)
  • Google changes tweaks their algorithms and put their own results above others, to give their own apps advantages over standalone companies

Again, the notion here is of controlling distribution - both platforms are able to cross-sell their applications and promote their usage in a way that undermines their competitors/partners that are at their mercy.

In fact, if anything, Google has been shy about using their SERPs to cross-promote their other products - which is why there's so many Google products that don't have much traffic to their competitors.

If Bill Gates ran Google, he'd probably cause all searches for "facebook" redirect to Orkut.com :-)

Comparing Google's platform to Facebook's
Facebook is in a similar position - like Google, they are one of the "start pages" of the internet. But rather than reference, they are focused on communication, which makes them one of the few sites on the internet people use every day. And like Google, people also leave their Facebook pages open all day, and thus, they can control access to subsequent pages.

Unlike Google, however, rather than sending users away from the site, Facebook opted to open up their website for application developers. Interestingly enough, what that means is that they control the first click, the second click, and maybe even the 50th click.

In this way, they are far more open than Google in letting people leverage their distribution, and allow developers to create rich functionality within the Facebook site. This may also be great for them because it causes far more dependence on their platform.

So let's talk about what it'd mean for Google to open up their SERP, and treat it like their platform:

Google: Open up your SERP!
Right now, there are only two ways to build on top of the Google search experience:

  • Buy text ads
  • SEO your website and get into the organic index

And these are both great triggers for when people search for a specific type of text content.

But let's run through a couple crazy "What If?" scenarios:

  • What if Google let developers build INTO the search index pages with richer applications (like what Facebook/OpenSocial provides)?
  • What if when you searched for "definition of ironic", it wasn't a Google chosen result that came up at the top, but rather an "app" that placed itself there through driving the best relevance?
  • What if Google created an open standard that allowed each result to return themselves not as an automatically processed paragraph of text, but as a rich application?

If these scenarios were possible, then you might argue that all the smart stuff that Google's doing to improve their SERP - like making YouTube video thumbnails, or Google Image Search shortcuts - could be done automatically by the people building the underlying sites and integrating with a SERP API.

In fact, you could imagine that the ads could function this way as well, so that a real estate site might be given X by Y pixels of app real estate if they bid into the top slot.

Without this, the SERP is a walled garden platform that gets slow, incremental features based on whatever Google chooses to implement. And that's the furthest thing from open, yet it's also not Googley to let people clutter up the SERP. So we'll see how this tension evolves over time ;-)

Rethinking Facebook's "Daily Active Users"

What's the key metric for Facebook apps?
You might recall that initially, Facebook apps were measured by installs, and shown on leaderboards as such, and as a result, people optimized for that.

These days, you see people quoting DAUs, meaning Daily Active Users.

Problem is, as I wrote in my last post on "When and why do Facebook apps jump the shark?" DAUs can still hide a festering retention problem underneath a very viral app. Ideally, you want something that gives you a sense for how good the retention is, regardless of how viral it is.

Viral apps can have inflated active user counts
As you might expect, as you are acquiring tons of users in a viral process, you can inflate the active user counts. That means:

DAU = users acquired through invites + users that are repeat users because they're happy

... and ideally, you want to separate the two, and provide metrics to reflect the information. For the second term above, let's call that "Daily Repeat Users"

How about "Daily Repeat Users?"
One way to do that is to use the cohort method, which I discuss in the jumping the shark article above, and also here. What you'd want to expose is what % of users, after getting exposed to the app one time are likely to come back and use it again.

As a result, you want to count users that come back MULTIPLE times, but subtract out first-time users.

You might also think about how to subtract out users who come back via notifications, or other shenanigans that app developers may use to boost this new metric. Obviously you'd expect some gaming either way - it's inevitable with so much visibility at stake - but the more transparent the better.

If anyone has other suggestions for a better way to do this, I'm all ears!

 

March 08, 2008

Reader question: What are you working on?

Q: What are you working on?
Posted by nivi
 

A: Secret, for now ;-)

ABOUT THIS BLOG

  • Futuristic Play

    My name is Andrew Chen and I'm an entrepreneur living in San Francisco, CA. This blog covers my thoughts on metrics, viral marketing, user experience, game design, and online advertising.

    I don't write often, so sometimes the easiest thing to do is to subscribe to my blog (which you can do below).

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