May 06, 2008

Has the Facebook platform hit its peak?

The state of the Facebook platform
Jesse Farmer
, formerly of Adonomics, has posted some great analysis on the state of the Facebook developer community. In short, if you take the Facebook developer forums as a proxy for overall activity, the indicators across the board have declined. Now, you might argue that this isn't a fair proxy (and there's some analysis in the article on that specific point), but I'd argue it's a pretty good one to use in order to gauge overall interest and the health of small/medium developers.

In particular, Jesse includes this great table summarizing the data around the Facebook dev forums:

Monthly Statistics for the Facebook Developer Forum
Month: Jan 2008 Apr 2008
Posts per day 461 225 -51%
Signups per day 38 27 -29%
Threads per day 80 44 -44%
Active users 1,606 1,168 -27%
Highly active users 461 225 -47%

As you can see, there's been a decline across all indicators.

Similarly, if you take one of these factors, let's say Posts per week, and look at the overall historic trend, you can see that Posts Per Week peaked in the late Jan / early Feb timeframe, and has significantly decreased from there:

Note that MA in the above graph is "4 week moving average" meant to smooth out the ups and downs.

Key issues facing the FB platform
He further hypothesizes a number of different issues going on, including:

  • Other platforms are more attractive
  • Developers are consolidating
  • Facebook has made it too hard to win

Overall, a great analysis - would definitely recommend that you read the full article here.

May 04, 2008

Facebook Apps: Why they're focused on fun instead of utility


There's recently been some discussion that Facebook apps are silly and pointless, as proven by the categorization of apps on Facebook. The question is, why is this true?

Ben Rattray from Change.org recently sent me a great e-mail, and I asked for his permission to blog the essay. In it, he discusses the structural issues around Facebook apps, and why they encourage apps focused on communication rather than utility.


[UPDATE: Just to be clear, everything underneath the following line is Ben's work - one of my readers wanted me to clarify]


Ben writes:


The reason there are few and little use of utility-based applications is not because users don't want to use them or because app developers don't want to develop them, or even because Facebook doesn't want to encourage them (which they clearly do). It's because the means of distribution inside Facebook are structurally biased against them.

 

As you know, the reason for this is simple math. The only way for a Facebook app to get any sort of distribution is to have a viral coefficient over 1. This is an extremely high barrier for any app in which inviting friends is not an inherent part of using it (or, in your parlance, in which it is not structured for "viral action").

 

Instead, what most utility-based apps rely on for distribution is word of mouth, in which people tell their friends not because there is something built into the app that naturally causes peer-to-peer transmission but simply because it's worth talking about – or, in your parlance "viral branding." And as you've written it is very difficult to achieve a viral coefficient of over 1 through word of mouth. Ironically, this difficulty is compounded inside Facebook because the proliferation of viral action apps inundates users with invitations and makes them less and less likely to accept anything – including invitations to utility-based applications. So the barrier for going viral increases even further. Given current invitation conversation rates of 5% or less (at least what I'm hearing), for an app to go viral, you have to get people to invite an average of at least 20 friends. How many utility based apps can achieve that? How many inspire so much passion that its users tell 20 friends, on average? Few, even if people find the app incredibly useful.

 

(Of course, there are other ways that Facebook apps can be distributed outside of explicit invitations – i.e. the news feed and profile – but these are not nearly as effective as invitations and it's very difficult to go viral on these channels alone. Also, few people want to highlight their "utility" apps on their profile since, by definition, these apps are less about self expression, which is largely the point of the profile.)

 

To see how singularly biased Facebook's distribution structure is against utility-based apps, a comparison with the platform it so often likes to compare itself to, Windows, is instructive. Many Windows applications are incredibly useful, but few of them are viral (those that are, like Word, are only so because the use of it requires that others have it as well, and because they are increasingly useful as more people have it – e.g. they have network effects. But this is rare and they take a long time to gain traction). Instead, the way most Windows-based applications get distribution is through traditional, boring marketing and distribution deals with big-box stores like CompUSA.

 

But it's very hard (and incredibly inefficient) to market apps outside of the walled garden of Facebook. And nobody has the budget for true Windows application-style marketing since there is no clear business model yet inside Facebook to justify this sort of ad-spend.  So the only way apps can get distribution on Facebook is by having a viral coefficient of over 1.

 

(This is also why there is a wide chasm in the installs between apps – either an app is viral and has millions of users or its viral coefficient is less than 1 and has only a few hundred or few thousand users. It's simply mathematically impossible in a closed system for apps that aren't viral to get any traction. And this is not because all apps with a viral coefficient of less than 1 are not found useful by its users – it's because no more than a few people will ever find them.)

 

Theoretically Facebook's "application directory" could serve as the virtual equivalent to CompUSA. But there are so many applications in the directory that it is rendered virtually useless. This is a clear situation where too much choice is paralyzing – e.g. the "paradox of choice." Imagine walking into a CompUSA and having 25,000 choices for different applications. It's just not possible to decide between so many options. And so your natural reaction would be to just to walk away and never come back. And that's how it seems most Facebook users have responded to the application directory – there are very few installs directly from there, and I suspect it's never used much. (And, to the extent that it is used, the largely trivial viral action apps always dominate the front pages.)

 

Anyway, I realize that this is all already stuff you know, but it's remarkable that nobody seems to be writing about it. Instead what we get the glib analysis that all Facebook users want are trivial apps. And while it may be true that "just for fun" and communication apps are the ones users enjoy the most, that is far from the complete story and overlooks much deeper structural impediments to utility. It is also based on the misguided presumption that apps that are installed the most are those that users like the most. Which is simply not the case.

 

As a final note, I'm not sure what you think, but it seems almost certain that Facebook itself didn't realize when they launched the platform that they created a system in which it was nearly impossible to achieve the very thing they claimed to seek – greater utility. They now seem to understand the problem and are trying to take measures to improve the situation, but to do so they're going to have to either tweak things to make it possible for useful (but not inherently viral) applications to have a viral coefficient of over 1 (very difficult, I think), or they're going to have to implement a much improved directory. They could also personalize the directory so that users could see all the applications their friends rated most highly (not just used).

 

Either way, this is a big problem for Facebook, but not the one that most people think. It's not that users or application developers don't want to use or build useful apps. It's that Facebook's current structure is heavily biased against them.


[Ben sent me the following afterwards, as some extended remarks -Andrew]


Extended remarks:


After re-reading what I wrote as well as the comments below, I realized I should have probably also addressed the following two things in my original email:

First, what do I mean by a utility-based app?
Second, should Facebook aim to be a utility?
 

To answer the first question: by utility I don't just mean applications that are in the "utility" category of apps on Facebook or any sort of web application that might be considered generally useful. Rather, I mean it in the particular way I take Zuckerberg to mean it: an app that leverages the social graph to create greater social and personal value.

 

Definitions are important here. To illustrate exactly what I do and don't mean, I'll outline what I consider to be the three broad categories of web applications that might be considered to have utility:

 

  1. Apps that are inherently social and which let users better coordinate/connect with friends

This first category includes applications that help people coordinate or connect with friends or others in ways that are traditionally difficult but which the social graph makes relatively easy and potentially very powerful.  (These are distinct from "just for fun" games and other playful communications in that they generally help people accomplish something concrete.)  For example, these might be apps that:

 

  • Help people organize local sporting event leagues
  • Share travel schedules with friends (ala Dopplr)
  • Organize carpooling
  • Discuss and coordinate events / gatherings with friends (ala Skobee)
  • Allow for the creation of affinity groups that require custom features not available in the traditional "groups" feature set (e.g. Alcoholics Anonymous groups, as humorously suggested by Max Levchin recently)

Because of the inherently social nature of these potentially useful apps, many of which involve inviting friends, some of them may have the potential to have a viral coefficient of over 1. But they face a big hurdle in sustaining a viral coefficient of over 1 for many successive generations because (1) a large percentage of users get value out of the app without needing to invite further friends, and (2) although there may be a lot of people interested in the app and in inviting all their friends, these enthusiasts are not socially connected tightly enough to allow for the continued transmission of the app across personal networks. For example, someone might create a custom carpooling app and invite a lot of friends who are the type of people who would themselves push it to many other friends they want to carpool with, but because this social group may be socially and geographically isolated from other groups of friends passionate about carpooling, the app's viral coefficient will fall below 1 as it hits a population of people less interested in passing it on and its organic distribution will rapidly exhaust itself before being able to reach other interested populations – at which point few people will ever be exposed to the app again.  And this is despite it being considered a very useful app by many people.

 

2(a).  Apps that aren't inherently social, but which are given enhanced value with the social graph (non-business / work)

 

This second category includes applications that may not be intrinsically social or interpersonal (and therefore may exist independent of a user's social graph), but are those which gain additional value when laid on top of the social graph. This includes apps that allow people to:

 

· Share news (e.g. a personalized Digg)

· Share restaurant / service provider reviews (e.g. a personalized Yelp – so I don't just get undifferentiated restaurant reviews, but only those from people I trust)

· Share bookmarks (e.g. delicious with all my friends)

 

Note that the three examples I've given already have canonical applications outside of Facebook. Despite this, I think that the social graph offered by Facebook has a lot of value to add in that would allow me to receive the recommendations generated by these services through the trusted channels of all my friends.

 

It's also noteworthy that all three companies did launch Facebook apps and that none of them received more than a few thousand installs despite their huge popularity and the extra value offered by Facebook's social graph. This is clear evidence of what I mentioned above about the systematic distribution bias against utility-based apps.

 

2(b). Apps that aren't inherently social, but which are given enhanced value with the social graph (for business or work)

 

A subset of this second category are apps that, while given enhanced value by the social graph, are structured for work and therefore a bit of an odd cultural fit for Facebook even though strictly they could benefit from being inside the platform.  Examples include apps that allow for:

 

  • Job seeking / networking
  • Collaboration on work / documents

I think it's an outstanding question whether these are appropriate for Facebook, but I'm skeptical they will ever be (just as I'm skeptical Facebook will ever replace Linkedin for business networking). Just because something can fit inside Facebook from a functionality standpoint doesn't mean it will fit the site's culture, and culture on social sites matters.

 

  1. Apps that are neither inherently social nor benefit from the social graph (but are still "useful")

This final category are web applications that are useful (like purchasing a plane ticket, managing your finances, etc) but which don't at all benefit from the social graph. It's clear these types of apps don't have any business being inside Facebook.

 

So, in summary, when I say "utility-based apps" I mostly mean apps that fit in categories #1 and category #2a, but not those in #2b or #3.

 

Given this definition, should Facebook strive to be a social utility? Or should it just focus on what it's clearly great at – personal communication and play?

 

To answer this question I'm first inclined to ask the more fundamental question, "do people want Facebook to be a utility?"

 

The problem is that I'm not sure you can give a great answer to this yet, since the biased nature of app distribution on Facebook means that most people aren't being exposed to utility based apps – so we just don't know yet how people would respond if these apps had widespread usage.

 

I think it's possible that Facebook users as a whole just aren't that interested in utility-based apps. But I also think that a strong argument can be made that Facebook could be a compelling utility (as evidenced by some of the examples I gave above), and that the value of it becoming a true social utility is great enough to justify aiming for this. From a business standpoint, if Facebook wants to keep their core audience engaged beyond college, attract an older audience that has never used Facebook, and better monetize both groups, they're going to do more than offer fun ways to communicate with friends.

 

The challenge, of course, is to figure out how they can give themselves a legitimate chance of becoming a social utility with the current app distribution problems I described above. Frankly, I'm not sure whether the Facebook platform is the best way to achieve this, and I personally think they would have been better off focusing on an improved remote login API that allowed users to pull their social graph into third-party sites and then pump personal data back into Facebook ala FriendFeed, and that contrary to all the hype the platform may have been a strategic mistake. But that is another story entirely…


Ben Rattray is Founder and CEO of Change.org and lives in San Francisco

April 30, 2008

Quick link: Movie versus video game

Interesting that there's a full article on CNN that a video game might substantially impact the opening day launch of a movie: 'GTA IV' could keep 'Iron Man' audience at home - CNN.com.

Would you have entertained this as a problem years ago?

The aggregate industry numbers prove it out - in 2007, the movie box office is $9.6B and games is $9.5B. It's neck and neck!

UPDATE: A couple readers have pointed out that the movie numbers obviously don't include DVDs, licensing, and lots of other revenue streams - it's still an amazing comparison, but doesn't fully capture movies versus games

April 29, 2008

Vertical ad networks: What are they, and why did Cox just buy Adify for $300MM?

Adify exits for $300MM exit
Some of you may have read about the acquisition of Adify by Cox for $300MM. It's been covered in PaidContent, Silicon Alley Insider, and scores of other places. You gotta love the online ad industry - if this had been a consumer internet exit, it'd create intense buzz throughout the blogosphere, but since it's a boring B2B infrastructure play, it likely bores most people.

Anyway, I wanted to jot down a couple notes about how the industry fits together below - by the end, hopefully you'll get what Adify's business as a "vertical ad network infrastructure" company is all about.

What is a vertical ad network, and why would you start one?
The vertical ad network business is like the startup recipe du jour of New York. I've been pinged many times over by folks who are looking to start one, companies pitching them. Basically, these networks are appealing if you fall into the falling description:

Ad sales dude: You can sell ad impressions better than you can generate pageviews

Compare this to the typical Silicon Valley entrepreneur, who suffers from the opposite problem:

Web 2.0 dude: You can generate pageviews, but have no idea how to monetize them

So if you're in ad sales, and you can monetize but can't generate pageviews, what do you do? Well, you have several choices:

  • You can work for an online publisher (like ESPN/NYT/etc)
  • You can work for a rep firm or ad network (like FM, Ad.com)
  • You can work as an outside sales rep for a publisher
  • etc.

Now the last one starts to get you into vertical ad network territory.

Starting a vertical ad network

Let's say that you start by representing the ad inventory of a sports site, and you do a good job pitching ad agencies that represent Nike, etc. To become more relevant, and to lift all boats, you want to get MORE ad impressions, so that you can provide more reach. So you go sign up another sports site, and another, until you have a huge aggregation of the biggest sports publishers out there. At that point, you probably have a big team to do things like run your ad server, optimize the campaigns, and you might be an exclusive provider of ads to some of the sites you've signed up. And thus, you're a vertical ad network.

The biggest issue is channel conflict, which you can easily avoid. The problem is that a site like ESPN would never want to join an ad network, because they sell their inventory at premium CPMs that few would be able to approach. As a result, the only way to make this work is to form a vertical ad network with long/mid-tail publishers that don't have direct sales teams.

So in summary:

Vertical ad networks = Ad sales guys + Lots of mid/long-tail publishers in a vertical area

Basically, like all ad things, it's a type of arbitrage based around access to relationships and skillset, which converts <$1CPM ad inventory into something many times that. Then furthermore, the dynamics that encourage this market:

  • Ad sales guys often suck at creating new pageviews, but can monetize them
  • Web guys often suck at selling impressions, but can make websites
  • Brand ad agencies reward REACH - so a bunch of small guys together is better than by themselves
  • A good ride for the economy in the last few years has increased brand spend online (which will continue)

What's a vertical ad network infrastructure company?
Now that you know what a vertical ad network is, then it's easy to define a vertical ad network infrastructure company. Basically, if you want to set up a vertical ad network, first you need some sales guys, but you also need a bunch of software that lets you do stuff like:

  • Managing what publishers are in your network
  • Billing and payments
  • Campaign management
  • Ad serving
  • Setting pricing and outlining inventory
  • Creating an automated marketplace
  • etc.

So if you're 3 salesguys out of a financial services publisher, for example, you don't have to build the above - instead, just sign up for a license, and you can start selling from there.

I think where this fits into Cox is that they are ultimately a huge Old Media company - cable, media properties, newspapers, etc. They are seeing their ad revenues erode over time as the eyeballs move online, and their audiences aren't sticking to their online properties either. But as an organization, they know how to sell to advertisers, and this acquisition makes them able to leverage their skillset across many different verticals and domains online.

How do vertical ad networks fit into Web 2.0 and UGC?
It's important to note that vertical ad networks have a huge role to play in the eco-system of Web 2.0, because they are one of the only ways UGC content is being monetized well. Essentially, as consumers move to social sites, the skillset to package, sell, and manage the ad inventory for brand advertisers has been "outsourced" to these vertical ad networks - the guys that start the websites just aren't typically strong in this area. As a result, this process allows brand advertisers to talk to intermediaries that understand their concerns and help them make the jump into buying UGC inventory.

Just look at the list of clients that Adify has, many of whom are based on UGC ad inventory.

Summary
In short, this entire space of vertical ad networks is created by the inefficiency in brand ad sales, which is likely to just continue. Let's hope that it becomes a sustainable way for smaller publishers to monetize their inventory, rather than just dumping their ads into remnant ad networks.

As a quick plug - there are not many folks in this space other than Adify, but I share an office with AdRoll, another company that's doing vertical ad network infrastructure. I'd encourage you to check them out, since my guess is that this area is about to heat up a lot more.

April 28, 2008

Facebook app CPM numbers from Inside Facebook

CPM rates on Facebook apps
Great data from Justin Smith on Facebook app CPMs: What CPM is your app making? Data from Facebook Developers. Thanks to Justin for putting together these great numbers.

Here are the numbers:

  • tspree15 is making $0.60 CPM with Social Media
  • cbovis is making $1.50 CPM with VideoEgg, but they can’t cover all his inventory (the rest runs on RockYou)
  • sweetsteve is making $0.27 CPM with Cubics, down from $0.43 earlier this month
  • ejono is seeing a $0.40 CPM with Cubics
  • cory is making a $4.78 eCPM with Social Media (???)
  • mzeitler
    is making a $0.50 CPM each with AdSense, FB Exchange, Social Media, and
    RockYou (and by combining 2 units on a page is making $1.00 CPM)
  • saintseiya is making $0.125 CPM with Lookery ($0.25 with 2 ads above the fold)
  • markdoub is seeing $0.10 CPM with Cubics, down from $0.43
  • ersingencturk is seeing $0.04 CPM with AdSense

Overall, the numbers are generally <$1, and you also see that there are some issues with "fill rates" - that is, how likely it is that an ad gets displayed when there's a space. For brand advertising, it can be quite low.

How does this foot to internet-wide CPMs?
These numbers are in-line with my previous post on 5 factors that determine your advertising CPMs, where I wrote:

  • Social sites (forums/chat/etc) without direct ad sales teams: <$0.25 CPM
  • Largely international sites: <$0.50 CPM
  • Medium-sized sites that use banner ad networks: <$1 CPM
  • Reference sites in a specific category: >$5 CPM or sometimes
    much higher, depending on category - we ran into home improvement
    reference sites that did $20 CPMs

Given that these are all social sites with mostly US traffic but no direct sales teams, an average of 10-50 cents is pretty accurate.

Combine this with Jeremy Liew's insights on getting to $25MM/yr on Facebook app ad impressions, and you see that it takes a good 900+ million installs. Ouch. Jeremy's slides below...

ESSAYS ON VIRAL MARKETING, ONLINE ADS, AND GAMES

Stuff I'm doing around the web

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